Odds Made Simple
Every casino bet carries two sets of numbers: the odds printed on the table, which tell you what a win pays, and the true odds, which describe how likely that win really is. The house edge lives in the gap between them. Once you can compare the two, any paytable becomes readable. This page is for readers aged 18 and over.
Payout odds: "to" and "for"
Most tables state payouts as "X to 1". A bet at 8 to 1 that wins returns your stake plus eight times the stake. Some machines and paytables use "X for 1" instead, which counts the returned stake as part of the payout: 9 for 1 is the same as 8 to 1. The difference looks small, but mixing the two up makes a bet seem better than it is, so it is worth checking which wording a game uses.
True odds
True odds compare the ways a bet can lose with the ways it can win. A single die has six faces. A bet on one face has one way to win and five ways to lose, so its true odds are 5 to 1. If a game paid exactly 5 to 1 on that bet, it would be a fair bet, and over time neither side would profit.
How the gap becomes the casino's share
Casinos pay a little less than the true odds. Take that same die bet and imagine it pays only 4 to 1. Over six average rolls on a stake of one unit, you win once and collect 4, and lose five times, giving up 5. You end one unit down after staking six, so the house keeps about 16.7% of every bet on average. That percentage is the house edge.
| Step | Question to ask |
|---|---|
| 1 | How many outcomes are possible, and are they equally likely? |
| 2 | How many of those outcomes win the bet? |
| 3 | What does a winning bet actually pay? |
| 4 | Add up wins and losses over every outcome and divide by the total staked. |
A worked example: sic bo Small
Three dice can land in 216 equally likely ways. A Small bet wins on totals of 4 to 10, unless the roll is a triple. Counting those rolls gives 105 winners and 111 losers. The bet pays 1 to 1. Staking one unit on each of the 216 rolls, you win 105 and lose 111, ending six units down, which is about 2.8% of the total staked. The full table of sic bo bets is in our guide on how to play sic bo.
What the edge does and does not tell you
- It is a long-run average. In a short session, results swing widely in both directions.
- It does not change because of past results. Dice, cards and slot software have no memory.
- A lower edge makes a game cheaper to play, not profitable to play.
- Faster games apply the edge more times per hour, so the cost of an evening depends on pace as well as percentage.
We use these same steps in every article, as explained on Checking Our Facts. Whichever game you choose, set a budget first and check the rules where you live; our page Play Within Your Limits has more on keeping play in proportion.
True at any casino
Things that hold true at every table
General points that apply whichever game you choose.
Every casino bet pays a little less than its true odds, and that gap is the house edge.
A house edge describes a very long run, not tonight's result.
Dice, cards and slot software have no memory of earlier rounds.
Side bets with large payouts usually carry the biggest edges on the table.
Faster games apply their edge more often per hour.
Rules and paytables vary between casinos, so the table in front of you is what counts.
The price list
What the house keeps, bet by bet
Approximate long-run house edges for common bets in the games we cover, under the standard rules named in each row.
- Blackjack, good rules, played by the chart0.5%Rough figure for a 3 to 2 payout; worse rules or guesswork raise it.
- Punto banco: Banker1.06%Eight-deck shoe with 5% commission on winning Banker bets.
- Punto banco: Player1.24%Eight-deck shoe, paid even money.
- Sic bo, Big or Small2.78%Loses on any triple; 105 winning rolls out of 216.
- Sic bo, Any triple at 30 to 113.9%Six triples in 216 rolls, paid below the fair 35 to 1.
- Punto banco: Tie paid 8 to 114.4%Ties come up roughly once in ten or eleven rounds.
These are averages over an enormous number of bets and say nothing certain about a single session. Check the rules and paytable of the game you actually play.
Spotted a mistake?
A short note is enough.